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Decision Makers
Posted by: | Posted on: July 19, 2022And God rolls yet! Why politicians, managers and scientists have problems with the chaos Hamburg/Munich – economic history is paved with the corpses of once proud companies which did not make the panning for new waves of technology. Economic theorists call radical technologies such as the Internet, which fundamentally change the rules of the game, like disruptiv’: and currently a strong disruption experience the media industry, whose business models crumble on all fronts especially equal to several industries. It is now not so, that these changes are not seen. The Web as a mass medium is soon 15 years old, there was plenty of time for new strategies. What it is, that highly paid executives have apparently simply missed to respond adequately to this new wave\”, network-based blogger Andreas Goldi wonders. It is probably difficult for many decision makers to predict nonlinear developments. We are programmed to phenomena of the physical world, where a linear movement much is typical. And that’s why we unconsciously tend linear to extrapolate all current events, which almost always leads to wrong predictions.
Example: in 1993 the Internet saw a minor niche phenomenon, which grew only slowly and that one could therefore ignore largely as a large group. in 1999, however, at the height of the dot com boom, even seasoned manager believed in endless growth for E-business\”, so Gabriel. Both prospects proved to be a mistake. Anomalies are phase transitions, which lead to exciting changes in nature. They are also often children of chaotic developments.
Non-linear systems dominate the world. 100 years ago, the world of physicist in turmoil was because the stable, linear world collapsed and broke into random, non-linearity and chaos in the world of ideas. God rolls not ‘ Einstein is supposed to have said of his life no friend of this probability theory of physics. And today we are seeing that already in macroeconomics: economic crises, unexpected opportunities and the inability of the forecast are nothing more than an indication of the chaotic, non-linear development of our economy. Managers, politicians and scientists are a part of randomness and chaos.
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